This calculator lets you input an actual race time to see what you should be capable of at another distance. It is adjusted for distance (ie its 10K prediction isn't just double your 5K time), but there are three caveats:
- It assumes you've done appropriate training for the distance. Doing a 22-minute 5K today doesn't mean you can do a sub-4 marathon tomorrow.
- It assumes you don't have a natural significant bias towards either speed or endurance. Some people, no matter how much training they do, will always over-achieve at one end of the scale.
- The calculations become less accurate for times under three and a half minutes and over four hours.
The formula was originally devised by Pete Riegel, a research engineer and marathoner, and published in Runner's World, most recently by Owen Anderson in 1997. It has been widely used since then. The formula is:
T2 = T1 x (D2/D1)1.06
where T1 is the given time, D1 is the given distance, D2 is the distance to predict a time for, and T2 is the calculated time for D2.
There are MANY factors that go into the decision to cancel a training session, and not all conditions are predictable. However - our primary concern is ALWAYS thinking about the safety of our athletes, coaches and staff. In our opinion, there is no workout in the world that is SO IMPORTANT that we will put anyone in a potentially dangerous situation.
In the event that we must cancel a Group Workout, we will do our best to update the CES Weather Twitter accounts no later than one (1) hour prior to the regularly scheduled starting time. We do reserve the right to cancel any workout at any moment, if weather conditions become dangerous.
For Cancellation Information, we will post updates for our athletes in the following locations, in priority order:
CES Weather Account(s) on Twitter (make sure you check the dates on the posts!)
This page (https://www.chicagoendurancesports.com/weather-updates) will include the twitter feeds for all of our group programs/locations – see left for the latest posts & links to follow the account for your program/location.
CES Facebook Group for the current program(s)
Email from CES via Constant Contact (only if time allows)
Examples of conditions that could cause cancellation include (but are not limited to):
Cold weather:
Temperature is below 0 degrees
Dangerous path conditions (icy, snowy, etc.)
Heat/Air Quality:
Heat index falls within the Danger or Extreme Danger zone (reference the NWS Heat Index)
AQI 151+ (reference Fleet Feet Blog)
Severe Weather:
Dangerous weather conditions, such as ice storms, hail, high winds, tornado watch warnings etc.
Lightening is present in the event of a thunderstorm
*Fleet Feet Chicago/Chicago Endurance Sports reserves the right to cancel any run that is not deemed safe for participants
